Experts 2018: What a computer model considers of Tiger Woods' chances to get a fifth green jacket

For the first time since 2015, Tiger Woods will tee it up in the Masters. Given his trials in this interval, that he’s healthy sufficient to play is an achievement in itself. However the 42-year-old will be far from a ceremonial player when he arrives in order to Augusta National. Woods has appeared stout and formidable in his most recent comeback, highlighted by a runner-up plus fifth-place finish in his last 2 starts. Combined with impressive showings in the Honda Classic and Farmers Insurance plan Open, Las Vegas has Woods detailed as among the favorites .

Of course , gambling odds are reflections from the public’s bias, and as the return of Tigermania has proved, Hardwoods remains a beloved figure from the galleries. So striping away emotion, what type of forecast is on Tiger’s horizon? According to Dr . Riccio’s Design, not a prosperous one.

“Even with his excellent perform in recent months, it doesn’t give him much of a possibility of winning, ” Riccio says. “A month ago, after missing the particular cut at the Genesis Open, the particular Model indicated a resurgent Gambling, and he delivered. But he is today facing probably the strongest field of all of the events he has entered. ”

Riccio’s stance is certainly understandable; Tiger’s game is definately not flawless. Even with Augusta National’s open up confines, his driving performance (he ranks 153rd in strokes acquired: off-the-tee) could be a major detriment, proved in his failed opportunities thus far upon par 5s (101st in par-5 scoring).

Nevertheless , our expert believes Woods can tighten his dispersion with the huge stick, or at least reach a point exactly where it’s not a disability. After all, Augusta National is a second-shot course, plus Woods’ work with the irons (14th in approach) should translate in order to plenty of birdie opportunities. Moreover, whenever he has gone wayward, Tiger’s proven a firm constitution, ranking seventh within strokes gained: around the green plus 187h in scrambling. While “Vegas favorite” may be too amplified the title, don’t be surprised if Gambling is lurking on the leader plank come Sunday.

As for the rest of the field, Riccio is usually riding chalk, with his first 6 selections mirroring the OWGR’s best six players.

“The Model predicts this year’s event will be primarily a fight between Jordan Spieth, Dustin Manley, and Justin Thomas, ” Riccio says. “It predicts that there is in regards to a 30% chance the winner is going to be one of those three. Right behind them is usually last year’s near-winner, Rose. inch

Hard to claim against Rose. Aside from a fine Experts track record (including silver medals within 2015 and 2017), the Brit is arguably the hottest player within golf with 13 top 10s in his last 16 worldwide excursions heading into Augusta. Returning to the last group will be an endeavor, in case his recent resume is any kind of indication, Rose certainly has the mettle to put himself in the conversation.

If you’re looking for titles not in the sport’s upper disposition, Thomas Pieters is an intriguing prospective client. The 26-year-old has seen their profile diminish since the 2016 Ryder Cup, as he’s also fighting tee-box erraticism (174st in SG: OTT). But Pieters proved in the Masters debut last season (T-5) that his game is extremely favorable to the course, and, following a second-half slump in 2017, has shown indications of life in the Masters lead-up. On 75/1 odds, Pieters is a darkish horse, and a menacing one in that.

Some other names to keep an eye on consist of Patrick Cantlay (12 top 25s in his last 20 events, incredibly sound in all facets of the game), Marc Leishman (owns a prior T-4 finish at the 2013 Masters) and, yes, Rory McIlroy. Proved at his recent triumph away Hill, McIlroy is healthy once again and his driving issues have been curbed (fifth in distance, 19th within SG: OTT), his game peaking at the right time. If he is able to keep his fickle putting away (and at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he was on fire with the even stick), McIlroy may finally put on the green jacket.

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